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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Punt formation) 35-J.Whitehead left end pushed ob at CLE 47 for 7 yards (21-J.Taylor). Rush out of Punt Formation

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model