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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Chicago Bears 33

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass incomplete deep left to 87-C.Uzomah.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.66 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model