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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 59

Chicago Bears 33 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to CIN 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 18 for 5 yards (93-S.Acho; 27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model