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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Chicago Bears 33

What Actually Happened

(6:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Boyd (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP