Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to CHI 34, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris. PENALTY on CIN-16-C.Core, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.87 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model