Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Chicago Bears 12

(10:22) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to CHI 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 24 for 1 yard (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model