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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 61

Chicago Bears 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to CIN 15, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-44-N.Kwiatkoski.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model