4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-31-M.Cooper Sr., Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CHI 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model