4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 15

Chicago Bears 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 1-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 15, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model