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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.11 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP