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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(10:36) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model