Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 24

(4:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model