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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.79 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model