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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 91

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to DAL 36, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 41 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.06 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 91, worth -5.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP