Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 96

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

(9:03) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to DAL 49, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-33-C.Awuzie.

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.01 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 96, worth -5.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model