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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 43

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to DAL 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP