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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:13) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP