4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 49

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(12:09) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to DAL 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model