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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.65 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP