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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(4:06) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to DAL 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model