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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 6

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model