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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 6, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model