Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(10:56) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 28 yards to CHI 17, Center-86-K.Nelson. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at SF 16 for 67 yards (47-E.Lee). PENALTY on CHI-84-B.Braunecker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.57 EP
75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP

KICK -1.11 EP

38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
62% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model