Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 85

Chicago Bears 14 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(15:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to SF 46, Center-49-A.DePaola. 81-T.Taylor to SF 48 for 2 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model