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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 42

Chicago Bears 14 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(10:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to SF 14, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-52-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model