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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model