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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP