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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model