Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 83

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

(2:48) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to PIT 41, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.55 EP
54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model