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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 26-L.Bell right tackle to PIT 45 for 9 yards (26-J.Shaw). CIN-55-V.Burfict was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model