Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:47) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 26 for 13 yards (82-C.Carter). PENALTY on PIT-29-B.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at PIT 13. {E.Rogers credited with 0 return yards due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model