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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.23 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP