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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CIN 4, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 13 for 9 yards (29-B.Allen; 55-A.Moats).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model