4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 23

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 4-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model