4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CIN 22, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP