Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to LV 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 25. 30-J.Richard to LV 27 for 2 yards (33-A.Adams, 83-K.Raymond).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model