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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 34

New York Giants 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model