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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to LV 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 39 for 2 yards (83-K.Raymond).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model