4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 72

New York Giants 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to LV 39, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model