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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 37

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to NYG 4, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-19-I.Whitney.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model