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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Punt formation) 7-M.King up the middle to LV 9 for -11 yards (43-S.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.86 EP