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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 9-B.Wing punts 69 yards to LV 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-83-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model