4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model