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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 24-M.Lynch left guard to NYG 20 for 10 yards (21-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.26 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model