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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 24-M.Lynch up the middle to NYG 46 for -1 yards (54-O.Vernon).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model