Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to LV 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard to LV 40 for 19 yards (55-R.Armstrong). FUMBLES (55-R.Armstrong), recovered by LV-39-K.McGill at LV 40. 39-K.McGill to LV 40 for no gain (Team).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model