4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 32

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model