Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 23

(1:05) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete short middle to 11-Z.Jones (25-E.Rowe) [91-D.Wise]. Receiver and coverage at BUF 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.55 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP