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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 46

New England Patriots 23 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 6-R.Allen punts 31 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.57 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model