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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 20

New England Patriots 6 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model